Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
